0-1 last week. Turns out recovering fumbled punts is about as effective as hitting Hail Mary's. Not that we're bitter. Sometimes the breaks don't go your way. But we are still short the Giants. We've been wrong or unlucky in that position for weeks now but are going to hold to it.
NE (-3) vs NYG [MP= -6.13]
That's a 3.13-point edge, putting it squarely in the "Other Plays" category. And gives us a little room for liking the Pats even if you grant that the Giants are better than they were in the regular season. And we grant less of that than most people. Over the last 12 years, there is very little movement in the playoffs from a team's regular-season performance. There is SLIGHT regression to the mean, but actually suprisingly slight. And performance at the end of the year -- whether last 1, 2, 3 or 4 games -- doesn't predict anything at all.
Of course there is a lot of noise in playoff performance -- regular season performance is far from deterministic. We just find that our regular season #s go through more or less in full, and that late-season trends don't matter. There's just a bit of research out there that suggests people will "see" it otherwise.
Are the Giants an exception? Entirely possible. Certainly out of those last 144 playoff teams there have been some that got better over time. As there have been some that got worse. It's just that the trend generally doesn't matter, so you're favoring some bits of evidence here and there over the base rate. Again, there is years of research on the tendency to do that and how well it works out (in short: it doesn't).
With a 3-point edge you have to be VERY sure of those bits to like the Giants. We're going with the base rates.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Conference Championship Picks
1-0 last week. Only three games left in the season and happily we do have a pick this weekend. In fact it's very nearly in the "Big Play" category (more than a 4-point edge). Usual deal - no weather, injuries or matchups considered here. Lines are from Covers.com 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (40-35-2 YTD)
SF -2.5 vs. NYG [MP= -6.4]
In the AFC we have New England by -5.6 vs. Baltimore, while the market has them at -7. That line opened at 7.5 so has moved toward us a bit.
In short, we think the Niners are a little more likely to win than the Patriots, while the market thinks they are considerably less likely to.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (40-35-2 YTD)
SF -2.5 vs. NYG [MP= -6.4]
In the AFC we have New England by -5.6 vs. Baltimore, while the market has them at -7. That line opened at 7.5 so has moved toward us a bit.
In short, we think the Niners are a little more likely to win than the Patriots, while the market thinks they are considerably less likely to.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Divisional Playoff Picks
A painful 0-2 last week. With Denver, in particular, a great reminder of how difficult this prediction business is. But here we go again, with our typical set of considerations - no regard for weather, injuries or matchups. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-35-2 YTD)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal [MP= +4.8]
In the other games we have New Orleans by 1.6 (line=3.5), Green Bay by 8.2 (v. 7.5) and New England by 11.8 (v. 13.5).
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-35-2 YTD)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal [MP= +4.8]
In the other games we have New Orleans by 1.6 (line=3.5), Green Bay by 8.2 (v. 7.5) and New England by 11.8 (v. 13.5).
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Wildcard Picks
2-3 last week. Ended with a whimper, alas. We'll see if we can pick it back up for the playoffs. Hate to slide more chips in on so few plays, but, on the other hand, the lines are a little softer this time of year. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. As usual, no consideration of weather, matchups and injuries (though see note on Texans/Schaub below).
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-33-2 YTD)
Det (+10.5) at NO [MP= +7.99]
Atl (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.99]
Other Games
We have Pittsburgh an 8-point favorite at Denver. Line is 9. If you allow a (downward) Tebow effect in Denver's season, it's not hard to understand the extra point.
We have Houston a 3.3-point favorite hosting Cincinnati. Line is 3. We essentially downgraded Houston this week by considering only the 6 post-Schaub games in our ratings for them. This is the only injury adjustment in the numbers. A crude one, but it looks like we landed right on top of the market.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-33-2 YTD)
Det (+10.5) at NO [MP= +7.99]
Atl (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.99]
Other Games
We have Pittsburgh an 8-point favorite at Denver. Line is 9. If you allow a (downward) Tebow effect in Denver's season, it's not hard to understand the extra point.
We have Houston a 3.3-point favorite hosting Cincinnati. Line is 3. We essentially downgraded Houston this week by considering only the 6 post-Schaub games in our ratings for them. This is the only injury adjustment in the numbers. A crude one, but it looks like we landed right on top of the market.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Week 17 Picks
3-2 last week (2-2 on Big Plays). Going into the last weekend our Big Plays are 64.7% YTD and Other Plays are 55.2%. 5 games on tap this week, with the usual considerations -- injuries, weather and matchups are not factored in. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
None this week.
Other Plays (37-30-2 YTD)
Dal (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.4]
SF (-10.5) at STL [MP= -13.5]
Den (-3) vs KC [MP= -5.9]
Chi (pick) at Min [MP= -2.9]
SD (+3) at Oak [MP= +0.4]
We're scratching two games because of final weekend oddities. The Packers-Lions and Texas-Titans both match teams with nothing to gain against teams with a lot on the line. The market lines are completely disconnected from any kind of power rankings.
The Steelers-Browns game is currently off the board because of Roethlisberger's unknown status. We show that as a 9-point game if Roethlisberger is fully active.
One large, interesting line move so far this week: Saints opened -7 against Carolina, but have since moved to -9. We have them at -10.3.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
None this week.
Other Plays (37-30-2 YTD)
Dal (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.4]
SF (-10.5) at STL [MP= -13.5]
Den (-3) vs KC [MP= -5.9]
Chi (pick) at Min [MP= -2.9]
SD (+3) at Oak [MP= +0.4]
We're scratching two games because of final weekend oddities. The Packers-Lions and Texas-Titans both match teams with nothing to gain against teams with a lot on the line. The market lines are completely disconnected from any kind of power rankings.
The Steelers-Browns game is currently off the board because of Roethlisberger's unknown status. We show that as a 9-point game if Roethlisberger is fully active.
One large, interesting line move so far this week: Saints opened -7 against Carolina, but have since moved to -9. We have them at -10.3.
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Week 16 Pick Notes
So, we're going to scratch the PIT pick, since Roethlisberger is out with an injury. Charlie Batch in for Roethlisberger.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Week 16 Picks
2-2 last week. The usual protocol this week re injuries, weather, lines, etc. And as always, "Big Plays" are games with a 4+ point edge, and "Other Plays" are games with 2-4 point edges.
Getting to be a tough time of year for a system that doesn't account for injuries -- be sure to see the notes below.
Big Plays (20-10 YTD)
Hou (-5.5) at Ind [MP= -11.1]
Oak (+1.0) at KC [MP= -3.9]
Jac (+7.5) at Ten [MP= +3.0]
Chi (+13.5) at GB [MP= +9.3]
Other Plays (36-30-2 YTD)
Pit (-16) vs. STL [MP= -19.0]
Buf (+3.0) vs Den [MP= +0.3]
A number of these picks deserve caution. We continue to like the Texans & Bears better than the market, at least partly because our system doesn't know they're playing with a different QBs than they started the season with. Their offensive stats have taken a dive since their injuries. Even though we weigh recent games more heavily, we use the whole season, which means our numbers will lag these kinds of discrete changes. To some extent this may also be true of the Steelers with a gimpy Roethlisberger. And of course we do not account for coaching changes -- will be interesting to see if KC's performance last week is truly a regime change.
We calculated the Jets-Giants as a neutral site game, figuring the true homefield advantage to the Jets was likely closer to 0 than our usual 2.44. On a neutral field we'd favor the Jets by 3.8, which is close to the market (3.0).
We liked Miami at +10.5 at New England (we have them at +7.6), but the line has already moved to 9.5, taking our edge below 2 points.
Getting to be a tough time of year for a system that doesn't account for injuries -- be sure to see the notes below.
Big Plays (20-10 YTD)
Hou (-5.5) at Ind [MP= -11.1]
Oak (+1.0) at KC [MP= -3.9]
Jac (+7.5) at Ten [MP= +3.0]
Chi (+13.5) at GB [MP= +9.3]
Other Plays (36-30-2 YTD)
Pit (-16) vs. STL [MP= -19.0]
Buf (+3.0) vs Den [MP= +0.3]
A number of these picks deserve caution. We continue to like the Texans & Bears better than the market, at least partly because our system doesn't know they're playing with a different QBs than they started the season with. Their offensive stats have taken a dive since their injuries. Even though we weigh recent games more heavily, we use the whole season, which means our numbers will lag these kinds of discrete changes. To some extent this may also be true of the Steelers with a gimpy Roethlisberger. And of course we do not account for coaching changes -- will be interesting to see if KC's performance last week is truly a regime change.
We calculated the Jets-Giants as a neutral site game, figuring the true homefield advantage to the Jets was likely closer to 0 than our usual 2.44. On a neutral field we'd favor the Jets by 3.8, which is close to the market (3.0).
We liked Miami at +10.5 at New England (we have them at +7.6), but the line has already moved to 9.5, taking our edge below 2 points.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Week 15 Picks
5-4 last week (1-0 on the only "big play" after -- unfortunately -- scratching the Seattle pick). Usual setup -- no consideration of injuries, weather or matchup. Lines are from covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. "Big Plays" are games with edge>4 points, "Other Plays" are games with edge=2-4 points.
Short slate and no big plays this week -- our lines are right on top of the market's (6 games are within 0.6 points).
Big Plays (20-10 YTD)
None this week.
Other Plays (34-28-2 YTD)
Hou (-6.5) vs Car [MP= -10.2]
NYJ (+3) at Phi [MP= +0.4]
Cin (-6) at STL [MP= -8.5]
NO (-7) at Min [MP= -9.0]
Short slate and no big plays this week -- our lines are right on top of the market's (6 games are within 0.6 points).
Big Plays (20-10 YTD)
None this week.
Other Plays (34-28-2 YTD)
Hou (-6.5) vs Car [MP= -10.2]
NYJ (+3) at Phi [MP= +0.4]
Cin (-6) at STL [MP= -8.5]
NO (-7) at Min [MP= -9.0]
Monday, December 12, 2011
Week 14 Picks (Addendum)
We're scratching the Seattle pick (-5 on Wed, now -10) vs. St. Louis Monday night, since Bradford is out for the game. To stay consistent with our policy of scratching games the week after a team loses its starting QB.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Week 14 Picks
One of our only bad weeks of the season last week: 2-4 (1-1 on big plays). Look to rebound this week with a huge slate - picks on 10 games. As usual, these don't consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays
*Hou (+3) at Cin [MP= -4.3]
Sea (-5) vs STL [MP= -10.3]
Other Plays
Jac (+1) vs TB [MP= -2.8]
Det (-7) vs Min [MP= -10.7]
Chi (+3.5) at Den [MP= -0.1]
NO (-3.5) at Ten [MP= -7.1]
NYJ (-9) vs KC [MP= -12.3]
Buf (+7) at SD [MP= 4.3]
SF (-3.5) at Ari [MP= -5.7]
Dal (-3) vs NYG [MP= -5.2]
*Clearly the reason we disagree so much with the market on Hou/Cin is because of the Texans' QB situation.As discussed in previous weeks, we scratch games only the first week after a team loses its QB. So we have Houston on the board as an official pick, but we can't say we like it much. Same for the Chicago pick, due to the Cutler injury.
Fewer lines moves this week, and they're more balanced for/against us. A line move on the Dallas game cost us a pick last week, but is giving us one this week, as the 1/2-point shift toward the Giants was needed to get this pick over the 2-point threshold. Are the Giants one of the only teams out there with as much sentiment in the spread as the Cowboys?
The biggest line move has been on the Baltimore-Indy game. We have it 16.8. The market opened at 15 but has since moved to 16.5. I'm entertained by the move to almost our exact line, but also the absurdity of the (shared!) precision on a game that should be such a blowout. "88% chance of winning is not quite right, let's make it 90%."
Big Plays
*Hou (+3) at Cin [MP= -4.3]
Sea (-5) vs STL [MP= -10.3]
Other Plays
Jac (+1) vs TB [MP= -2.8]
Det (-7) vs Min [MP= -10.7]
Chi (+3.5) at Den [MP= -0.1]
NO (-3.5) at Ten [MP= -7.1]
NYJ (-9) vs KC [MP= -12.3]
Buf (+7) at SD [MP= 4.3]
SF (-3.5) at Ari [MP= -5.7]
Dal (-3) vs NYG [MP= -5.2]
*Clearly the reason we disagree so much with the market on Hou/Cin is because of the Texans' QB situation.As discussed in previous weeks, we scratch games only the first week after a team loses its QB. So we have Houston on the board as an official pick, but we can't say we like it much. Same for the Chicago pick, due to the Cutler injury.
Fewer lines moves this week, and they're more balanced for/against us. A line move on the Dallas game cost us a pick last week, but is giving us one this week, as the 1/2-point shift toward the Giants was needed to get this pick over the 2-point threshold. Are the Giants one of the only teams out there with as much sentiment in the spread as the Cowboys?
The biggest line move has been on the Baltimore-Indy game. We have it 16.8. The market opened at 15 but has since moved to 16.5. I'm entertained by the move to almost our exact line, but also the absurdity of the (shared!) precision on a game that should be such a blowout. "88% chance of winning is not quite right, let's make it 90%."
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Week 13 Picks
3-2 last week (again!). Missed on the only big bet. See the "Performance" tabs for much more detail.
Onto the picks. Usual setup - we do not consider matchups, weather or injuries (one QB exception noted below). Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays [18-9 YTD]:
Chi (-7.0) vs. KC (MP= -12.1)
SF (-13) vs. STL (MP= -17.7)
Other Plays [29-21-2 YTD]:
Jac (+3.0) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Det (+9.0) at NO (MP= +6.1)
Car (+3.0) at TB (MP= +0.4)
Buf (-1.5) vs. Ten (MP= -4.0)
We're scratching Houston-Atlanta since Houston lost their starting QB last week (for the second week in a row). We're also not thrilled with the Chicago pick since we have only one week of data since Cutler's been out. But as we discussed in last week's blog, our policy is to scratch only the first week following a QB injury.
Earlier this week we thought we'd have a pick on Arizona (vs. Dallas). We have that line at 3.2. It opened at 6 but has since moved to 4.5. As we've said before, it's frustrating to lose those picks but a good sign overall when lines move toward you. OTOH, the Chicago line moved big against us this week, taking it from "Other Plays" into "Big Plays". If we're lucky the market's over-valuing the Cutler injury.
A bit more on line moves. Just looked at the other 8 games we're NOT picking this week (because the edge is too small). In 5 of those games the line has moved since it opened, and in all 5 cases it moved toward us. Definitely what you want to see. Off-season we'll do a more systematic analysis.
Onto the picks. Usual setup - we do not consider matchups, weather or injuries (one QB exception noted below). Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays [18-9 YTD]:
Chi (-7.0) vs. KC (MP= -12.1)
SF (-13) vs. STL (MP= -17.7)
Other Plays [29-21-2 YTD]:
Jac (+3.0) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Det (+9.0) at NO (MP= +6.1)
Car (+3.0) at TB (MP= +0.4)
Buf (-1.5) vs. Ten (MP= -4.0)
We're scratching Houston-Atlanta since Houston lost their starting QB last week (for the second week in a row). We're also not thrilled with the Chicago pick since we have only one week of data since Cutler's been out. But as we discussed in last week's blog, our policy is to scratch only the first week following a QB injury.
Earlier this week we thought we'd have a pick on Arizona (vs. Dallas). We have that line at 3.2. It opened at 6 but has since moved to 4.5. As we've said before, it's frustrating to lose those picks but a good sign overall when lines move toward you. OTOH, the Chicago line moved big against us this week, taking it from "Other Plays" into "Big Plays". If we're lucky the market's over-valuing the Cutler injury.
A bit more on line moves. Just looked at the other 8 games we're NOT picking this week (because the edge is too small). In 5 of those games the line has moved since it opened, and in all 5 cases it moved toward us. Definitely what you want to see. Off-season we'll do a more systematic analysis.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Week 12 Picks
3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays [18-8 YTD]:
Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8)
Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]:
Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6)
SF (+3) at Bal (MP= -0.3)
Buf (+9) at NYJ (MP= +5.9)
Den (+6) at SD (MP= +3.5)
We scratched two games this week -- Jacksonville/Houston & Oakland/Chicago - because of injuries to Schaub and Cutler. Our policy is to scratch the first game after a team loses its starting QB. That's it. We need something simple and objective to add to our system, which does not account for injuries. We consider that the minimum necessary adjustment. The system is handicapped beyond that but we just live with it, expecting our models to "catch up"quickly as soon as post-injury data start coming in.
A very happy Thanksgiving to all.
Big Plays [18-8 YTD]:
Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8)
Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]:
Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6)
SF (+3) at Bal (MP= -0.3)
Buf (+9) at NYJ (MP= +5.9)
Den (+6) at SD (MP= +3.5)
We scratched two games this week -- Jacksonville/Houston & Oakland/Chicago - because of injuries to Schaub and Cutler. Our policy is to scratch the first game after a team loses its starting QB. That's it. We need something simple and objective to add to our system, which does not account for injuries. We consider that the minimum necessary adjustment. The system is handicapped beyond that but we just live with it, expecting our models to "catch up"quickly as soon as post-injury data start coming in.
A very happy Thanksgiving to all.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Week 11 Picks
5-5 last week, 2-1 on Big Picks. You can view a spreadsheet with all of our picks and results this season here. The big limitation of the Massey-Peabody rankings is that they do not account for injuries. So with all the QB carnage in Week 10, there are some teams that our rankings will have inflated. How well Tyler Palko will perform filling in for Matt Cassel is anybody's guess. We'll do our best to determine which QB changes skew our ratings, and omit those from picks.
On to the games. Lines from Covers.com as of 3:00pm PST. Injuries and matchup factors not accounted for in M-P lines.
Big Plays [17-8 YTD]:
Den +6.5 vs NYJ (M-P= +2.3)
Other Plays [24-19-1 YTD]:
Cin +7 at Bal (M-P= +3.3)
GB -14 vs TB (M-P= -17.1)
Was +7.5 vs Dal (M-P= +4.7)
Chi -3.5 vs SD (M-P= -6.1)
*We're omitting Phi +4.5 at NYG (M-P= +0.4) since Michael Vick's status is uncertain. Might add this pick later in the week depending on how the Vick injury sorts itself out.
On to the games. Lines from Covers.com as of 3:00pm PST. Injuries and matchup factors not accounted for in M-P lines.
Big Plays [17-8 YTD]:
Den +6.5 vs NYJ (M-P= +2.3)
Other Plays [24-19-1 YTD]:
Cin +7 at Bal (M-P= +3.3)
GB -14 vs TB (M-P= -17.1)
Was +7.5 vs Dal (M-P= +4.7)
Chi -3.5 vs SD (M-P= -6.1)
*We're omitting Phi +4.5 at NYG (M-P= +0.4) since Michael Vick's status is uncertain. Might add this pick later in the week depending on how the Vick injury sorts itself out.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Week 10 Picks
Went 5-3 last week (2-1 on top picks). Cincy had a nice second half rally to cover and win. Got a bit of a lucky break with the Arizona punt return TD in OT to win that one, but we'll take it. We have now had winning weeks in 6 of the 7 weeks we've been making these picks this season. And the one losing week was only 3-4-1. It's been surprisingly consistent from week to week.
On to this week's picks; lines from Covers.com as of Thursday at 2pm PST. Big picks have edges of >4 points; Other picks have edges of 2-4 points. As always, these picks do not take into account injuries or matchup factors.
Big Picks [16-7 YTD]:
Buf +5.5 at Dal (MP= +0.4)
SF -3.5 vs NYG (MP= -8.4)
Hou -3 at TB (MP= -7.8)
Other Picks [21-15-1 YTD]:
Cle -3 vs STL (MP= -6.7)
Mia -4 vs Was (MP= -7.6)
*Oak +7 at SD (MP= +3.8)
Cin +3 at PIT (MP=+0.0)
Car -3.5 vs Ten (MP= -6.2)
Det +3 at Chi (MP= +0.6)
Den +3 at KC (MP= +0.8)
*Carson Palmer starting his 2nd game in place of Jason Campbell; Oakland has played 2 games without Campbell, but we're going to include this pick, as Palmer is not a significant downgrade.
On to this week's picks; lines from Covers.com as of Thursday at 2pm PST. Big picks have edges of >4 points; Other picks have edges of 2-4 points. As always, these picks do not take into account injuries or matchup factors.
Big Picks [16-7 YTD]:
Buf +5.5 at Dal (MP= +0.4)
SF -3.5 vs NYG (MP= -8.4)
Hou -3 at TB (MP= -7.8)
Other Picks [21-15-1 YTD]:
Cle -3 vs STL (MP= -6.7)
Mia -4 vs Was (MP= -7.6)
*Oak +7 at SD (MP= +3.8)
Cin +3 at PIT (MP=+0.0)
Car -3.5 vs Ten (MP= -6.2)
Det +3 at Chi (MP= +0.6)
Den +3 at KC (MP= +0.8)
*Carson Palmer starting his 2nd game in place of Jason Campbell; Oakland has played 2 games without Campbell, but we're going to include this pick, as Palmer is not a significant downgrade.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Week 9 Picks
Just a heads up...MP rankings not in the WSJ until Saturday this week. Another solid week last week at 6-3 overall (1-1 on Big Picks, 5-2 on Other Picks). On to this week's picks where we have a few we really like. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; Big Picks are >4 pt edges; Other Picks are 2-4 pt edges.
Big Picks [13-6 YTD]:
Ari -3 vs Stl (MP= -10.6)
Cin +3 at Ten (MP= -3.5)
Buf -2 vs NYJ (MP= -7.0)
Other Picks [18-13-1 YTD]:
SF -3.5 at Was (MP= -7.0)
Sea +11.5 vs Dal (MP= +8.4)
SD +5.5 vs GB (MP= +2.8)
Ind +7 vs Atl (MP= +4.4)
Chi +7.5 vs Phi (MP= +5.0)
Once again, we're on Buffalo and Indy. Seems like it's a weekly thing. One is proving us right; the other...not so much. It does seem (to me at least) that the market has been slow to react to the early successes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco. MP rankings have bought into all three teams, with Buf and SF as top-5 teams, and Cin almost 2 points above average.
Big Picks [13-6 YTD]:
Ari -3 vs Stl (MP= -10.6)
Cin +3 at Ten (MP= -3.5)
Buf -2 vs NYJ (MP= -7.0)
Other Picks [18-13-1 YTD]:
SF -3.5 at Was (MP= -7.0)
Sea +11.5 vs Dal (MP= +8.4)
SD +5.5 vs GB (MP= +2.8)
Ind +7 vs Atl (MP= +4.4)
Chi +7.5 vs Phi (MP= +5.0)
Once again, we're on Buffalo and Indy. Seems like it's a weekly thing. One is proving us right; the other...not so much. It does seem (to me at least) that the market has been slow to react to the early successes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco. MP rankings have bought into all three teams, with Buf and SF as top-5 teams, and Cin almost 2 points above average.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Week 8 Picks
3-2 last week. 1-0 on our Big Pick. Remember, we did not count Oakland as a pick. The distinction we made between MIN and OAK's QB changes was that MIN made the decision to change their QB, the implication being that it gave them a better chance to win (and develop their rookie QB), whereas OAK's QB change was due to injury and we'd expect a substantial downgrade there. Naturally, our rankings would overvalue Oakland.
On to this week--lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; "Big Picks" are >4-point edges, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries, weather, etc.
Big Picks [12-5 YTD]:
Ind +9 at Ten (MP= +3.9)
Ari +12.5 at Bal (MP= +8.2)
SF -9 vs Cle (MP= -11.1)
Dal +3 at Phi (MP= -0.5)
*Buffalo is playing their yearly "home" game in Toronto. Home field advantage probably not as strong, but we'll leave it as a pick.
On to this week--lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; "Big Picks" are >4-point edges, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries, weather, etc.
Big Picks [12-5 YTD]:
Ind +9 at Ten (MP= +3.9)
Ari +12.5 at Bal (MP= +8.2)
Other Picks [13-11-1 YTD]:
Hou -9 vs Jac (MP= -12.1)
Mia +9.5 at NYG (MP= +5.8)
*Buf -5.5 vs Was (MP= -8.1)
Den +3 vs Det (MP= -0.5)
Pit +3 vs NE (MP= -0.4)SF -9 vs Cle (MP= -11.1)
Dal +3 at Phi (MP= -0.5)
*Buffalo is playing their yearly "home" game in Toronto. Home field advantage probably not as strong, but we'll leave it as a pick.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Week 7 Picks
3-4-1 last week. This week injuries and line moves are killing us but we still have a few edges. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of about 15 minutes ago.
Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:
*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)
* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).
Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:
Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.
Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:
*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)
* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).
Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:
Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Week 6 Picks
4-2 last week, 19-10 YTD. Winning record all 3 weeks. We'll get a full season analysis up soon.
Big slate of picks again this week. The usual scoop: lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago, "Big Picks" are >4-point edge, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries/weather/etc.
Big Picks [11-3 YTD]:
Min (+3) at Chi (MP= -2.6)
Was (+1.5) vs Phi (MP= -3.9)
Other Picks [8-7 YTD]:
SF (+4) at Det (MP= +0.2)
GB (-14.5) vs STL (MP= -18.0)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal (MP= +4.5)
Buf (+3) at NYG (MP= +0.3)
Car (+3.5) at Atl (MP= +1.4)
Cin (-7) vs Ind (MP= -9.0)
Amazed we like the Packers even though they're giving 14.5 points. St. Louis, ala Carolina last year, is getting some serious separation from the pack. Buffalo still looks underrated and Philly overrated.
Big slate of picks again this week. The usual scoop: lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago, "Big Picks" are >4-point edge, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries/weather/etc.
Big Picks [11-3 YTD]:
Min (+3) at Chi (MP= -2.6)
Was (+1.5) vs Phi (MP= -3.9)
Other Picks [8-7 YTD]:
SF (+4) at Det (MP= +0.2)
GB (-14.5) vs STL (MP= -18.0)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal (MP= +4.5)
Buf (+3) at NYG (MP= +0.3)
Car (+3.5) at Atl (MP= +1.4)
Cin (-7) vs Ind (MP= -9.0)
Amazed we like the Packers even though they're giving 14.5 points. St. Louis, ala Carolina last year, is getting some serious separation from the pack. Buffalo still looks underrated and Philly overrated.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Week 5 Picks
Not bad last week - 7-5 overall, including our 3 biggest edges. Not as much action this week but that's only compared to that ridiculous 12-game set. Still plenty. As always, "Big Picks" are those where we have more than a 4-point edge and "Other Picks" are those with 2-4-point edges. Lines are from Covers.com as of ~6pm Saturday night.
Remember that our rankings do not consider injuries, weather, etc., just this season's on-the-field stats.
Big Picks [Last week: 3-2]:
Buf (+3) vs Phi (MP= -5)
Den (+3.5) vs SD (MP= -0.9)
Other Picks [Last week: 4-3]:
Cin (+1.5) at Jac (MP= -2.2)
Car (+6.5) vs NO (MP= +3.7)
Ari (+3) at Min (MP= +0.4)
Det (-5) vs Chi (MP= -7.3)
That 8-point edge in the Buffalo game is about as big as we ever see, btw.
Remember that our rankings do not consider injuries, weather, etc., just this season's on-the-field stats.
Big Picks [Last week: 3-2]:
Buf (+3) vs Phi (MP= -5)
Den (+3.5) vs SD (MP= -0.9)
Other Picks [Last week: 4-3]:
Cin (+1.5) at Jac (MP= -2.2)
Car (+6.5) vs NO (MP= +3.7)
Ari (+3) at Min (MP= +0.4)
Det (-5) vs Chi (MP= -7.3)
That 8-point edge in the Buffalo game is about as big as we ever see, btw.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Week 4 Picks
We post our rankings early each week, and the WSJ publishes them on Thur/Fri, so you can always run these numbers for yourself. But to make it a bit easier, and to figure out who I'm supposed to be pulling for, we'll try to detail the picks each week. If you ran the #s last week you'll know we had a ridiculously good week. Sometimes small samples break your way.
As with last year, we consider a pick any game with an "edge" of at least 2 points. The edge is the difference between the line implied by our ratings and the one offered by sportsbooks. Here I'm using an average of the lines posted at covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. Remember that home teams get an extra 2.44.
Lots of picks this week...
Big picks (> 4-point edge):
SF +10 @ Phi (MP= +2.4)
Car +6.5 @ Chi (MP= 0.0)
Sea +5 vs. Atl (MP= -1.3)
Oak +6 vs. NE (MP= 0.0)
Jac +8 vs. NO (MP= +3.3)
Other picks (2-4-point edge)
Den +12 @ GB (MP= +8.6)
Wash -3 @ STL (MP= -5.9)
Mia +7 @ SD (MP= +4.2)
Bal -4.5 vs. NYJ (MP= -7.4)
Ind +10.5 @ TB (MP= +7.7)
Cin +3 vs. Buf (MP= +0.5)
Ari +1.5 vs. NYG (MP= -0.8)
As with last year, we consider a pick any game with an "edge" of at least 2 points. The edge is the difference between the line implied by our ratings and the one offered by sportsbooks. Here I'm using an average of the lines posted at covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. Remember that home teams get an extra 2.44.
Lots of picks this week...
Big picks (> 4-point edge):
SF +10 @ Phi (MP= +2.4)
Car +6.5 @ Chi (MP= 0.0)
Sea +5 vs. Atl (MP= -1.3)
Oak +6 vs. NE (MP= 0.0)
Jac +8 vs. NO (MP= +3.3)
Other picks (2-4-point edge)
Den +12 @ GB (MP= +8.6)
Wash -3 @ STL (MP= -5.9)
Mia +7 @ SD (MP= +4.2)
Bal -4.5 vs. NYJ (MP= -7.4)
Ind +10.5 @ TB (MP= +7.7)
Cin +3 vs. Buf (MP= +0.5)
Ari +1.5 vs. NYG (MP= -0.8)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)