Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Week 12 Picks

3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.

Big Plays [18-8 YTD]:

Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8)

Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]:

Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6)
SF (+3) at Bal (MP= -0.3)
Buf (+9) at NYJ (MP= +5.9)
Den (+6) at SD (MP= +3.5)

We scratched two games this week -- Jacksonville/Houston & Oakland/Chicago - because of injuries to Schaub and Cutler. Our policy is to scratch the first game after a team loses its starting QB. That's it. We need something simple and objective to add to our system, which does not account for injuries. We consider that the minimum necessary adjustment. The system is handicapped beyond that but we just live with it, expecting our models to "catch up"quickly as soon as post-injury data start coming in.

A very happy Thanksgiving to all.

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