Friday, October 28, 2011

Week 8 Picks

3-2 last week. 1-0 on our Big Pick. Remember, we did not count Oakland as a pick. The distinction we made between MIN and OAK's QB changes was that MIN made the decision to change their QB, the implication being that it gave them a better chance to win (and develop their rookie QB), whereas OAK's QB change was due to injury and we'd expect a substantial downgrade there.  Naturally, our rankings would overvalue Oakland.

On to this week--lines are from as of 15 minutes ago; "Big Picks" are >4-point edges, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries, weather, etc.

Big Picks [12-5 YTD]:

Ind +9 at Ten (MP= +3.9)
Ari +12.5 at Bal (MP= +8.2)

Other Picks [13-11-1 YTD]:

Hou -9 vs Jac (MP= -12.1)
Mia +9.5 at NYG (MP= +5.8)
*Buf -5.5 vs Was (MP= -8.1)
Den +3 vs Det (MP= -0.5)
Pit +3 vs NE (MP= -0.4)
SF -9 vs Cle (MP= -11.1)
Dal +3 at Phi (MP= -0.5)

*Buffalo is playing their yearly "home" game in Toronto.  Home field advantage probably not as strong, but we'll leave it as a pick.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Week 7 Picks

3-4-1 last week. This week injuries and line moves are killing us but we still have a few edges. As usual, lines are from as of about 15 minutes ago.

Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:

*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)

* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).

Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:

Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)

Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Week 6 Picks

4-2 last week, 19-10 YTD. Winning record all 3 weeks. We'll get a full season analysis up soon.

Big slate of picks again this week. The usual scoop: lines are from as of 15 minutes ago, "Big Picks" are >4-point edge, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries/weather/etc.

Big Picks [11-3 YTD]:

Min (+3) at Chi (MP= -2.6)
Was (+1.5) vs Phi (MP= -3.9)

Other Picks [8-7 YTD]:

SF (+4) at Det (MP= +0.2)
GB (-14.5) vs STL (MP= -18.0)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal (MP= +4.5)
Buf (+3) at NYG (MP= +0.3)
Car (+3.5) at Atl (MP= +1.4)
Cin (-7) vs Ind (MP= -9.0)

Amazed we like the Packers even though they're giving 14.5 points. St. Louis, ala Carolina last year, is getting some serious separation from the pack. Buffalo still looks underrated and Philly overrated.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Week 5 Picks

Not bad last week - 7-5 overall, including our 3 biggest edges. Not as much action this week but that's only compared to that ridiculous 12-game set. Still plenty. As always, "Big Picks" are those where we have more than a 4-point edge and "Other Picks" are those with 2-4-point edges. Lines are from as of ~6pm Saturday night.

Remember that our rankings do not consider injuries, weather, etc., just this season's on-the-field stats.

Big Picks [Last week: 3-2]:

Buf (+3) vs Phi (MP= -5)
Den (+3.5) vs SD (MP= -0.9)

Other Picks [Last week: 4-3]:

Cin (+1.5) at Jac (MP= -2.2)
Car (+6.5) vs NO (MP= +3.7)
Ari (+3) at Min (MP= +0.4)
Det (-5) vs Chi (MP= -7.3)

That 8-point edge in the Buffalo game is about as big as we ever see, btw.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Week 4 Picks

We post our rankings early each week, and the WSJ publishes them on Thur/Fri, so you can always run these numbers for yourself. But to make it a bit easier, and to figure out who I'm supposed to be pulling for, we'll try to detail the picks each week. If you ran the #s last week you'll know we had a ridiculously good week. Sometimes small samples break your way.

As with last year, we consider a pick any game with an "edge" of at least 2 points. The edge is the difference between the line implied by our ratings and the one offered by sportsbooks. Here I'm using an average of the lines posted at as of 15 minutes ago.  Remember that home teams get an extra 2.44.

Lots of picks this week...

Big picks (> 4-point edge):

SF +10 @ Phi (MP= +2.4)
Car +6.5 @ Chi (MP= 0.0)
Sea +5 vs. Atl (MP= -1.3)
Oak +6 vs. NE (MP= 0.0)
Jac +8 vs. NO (MP= +3.3)

Other picks (2-4-point edge)

Den +12 @ GB (MP= +8.6)
Wash -3 @ STL (MP= -5.9)
Mia +7 @ SD (MP= +4.2)
Bal -4.5 vs. NYJ (MP= -7.4)
Ind +10.5 @ TB (MP= +7.7)
Cin +3 vs. Buf (MP= +0.5)
Ari +1.5 vs. NYG (MP= -0.8)