Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Week 12 Picks

3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from as of 15 minutes ago.

Big Plays [18-8 YTD]:

Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8)

Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]:

Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6)
SF (+3) at Bal (MP= -0.3)
Buf (+9) at NYJ (MP= +5.9)
Den (+6) at SD (MP= +3.5)

We scratched two games this week -- Jacksonville/Houston & Oakland/Chicago - because of injuries to Schaub and Cutler. Our policy is to scratch the first game after a team loses its starting QB. That's it. We need something simple and objective to add to our system, which does not account for injuries. We consider that the minimum necessary adjustment. The system is handicapped beyond that but we just live with it, expecting our models to "catch up"quickly as soon as post-injury data start coming in.

A very happy Thanksgiving to all.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Week 11 Picks

5-5 last week, 2-1 on Big Picks.  You can view a spreadsheet with all of our picks and results this season here.  The big limitation of the Massey-Peabody rankings is that they do not account for injuries.  So with all the QB carnage in Week 10, there are some teams that our rankings will have inflated.  How well Tyler Palko will perform filling in for Matt Cassel is anybody's guess.  We'll do our best to determine which QB changes skew our ratings, and omit those from picks.

On to the games.  Lines from as of 3:00pm PST.  Injuries and matchup factors not accounted for in M-P lines.

Big Plays [17-8 YTD]:

Den +6.5 vs NYJ (M-P= +2.3)

Other Plays [24-19-1 YTD]:

Cin +7 at Bal (M-P= +3.3)
GB -14 vs TB (M-P= -17.1)
Was +7.5 vs Dal (M-P= +4.7)
Chi -3.5 vs SD (M-P= -6.1)

*We're omitting Phi +4.5 at NYG (M-P= +0.4) since Michael Vick's status is uncertain.  Might add this pick later in the week depending on how the Vick injury sorts itself out.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Week 10 Picks

Went 5-3 last week (2-1 on top picks).  Cincy had a nice second half rally to cover and win.  Got a bit of a lucky break with the Arizona punt return TD in OT to win that one, but we'll take it.  We have now had winning weeks in 6 of the 7 weeks we've been making these picks this season.  And the one losing week was only 3-4-1.  It's been surprisingly consistent from week to week.

On to this week's picks; lines from as of Thursday at 2pm PST.  Big picks have edges of >4 points; Other picks have edges of 2-4 points.  As always, these picks do not take into account injuries or matchup factors.

Big Picks [16-7 YTD]:

Buf +5.5 at Dal (MP= +0.4)
SF -3.5 vs NYG (MP= -8.4)
Hou -3 at TB (MP= -7.8)

Other Picks [21-15-1 YTD]:

Cle -3 vs STL (MP= -6.7)
Mia -4 vs Was (MP= -7.6)
*Oak +7 at SD (MP= +3.8)
Cin +3 at PIT (MP=+0.0)
Car -3.5 vs Ten (MP= -6.2)
Det +3 at Chi (MP= +0.6)
Den +3 at KC (MP= +0.8)

*Carson Palmer starting his 2nd game in place of Jason Campbell; Oakland has played 2 games without Campbell, but we're going to include this pick, as Palmer is not a significant downgrade.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Week 9 Picks

Just a heads up...MP rankings not in the WSJ until Saturday this week.  Another solid week last week at 6-3 overall (1-1 on Big Picks, 5-2 on Other Picks).  On to this week's picks where we have a few we really like.  Lines are from as of 15 minutes ago; Big Picks are >4 pt edges; Other Picks are 2-4 pt edges.

Big Picks [13-6 YTD]:
Ari -3 vs Stl (MP= -10.6)
Cin +3 at Ten (MP= -3.5)
Buf -2 vs NYJ (MP= -7.0)

Other Picks [18-13-1 YTD]:
SF -3.5 at Was (MP= -7.0)
Sea +11.5 vs Dal (MP= +8.4)
SD +5.5 vs GB (MP= +2.8)
Ind +7 vs Atl (MP= +4.4)
Chi +7.5 vs Phi (MP= +5.0)

Once again, we're on Buffalo and Indy.  Seems like it's a weekly thing.  One is proving us right; the other...not so much.  It does seem (to me at least) that the market has been slow to react to the early successes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco.  MP rankings have bought into all three teams, with Buf and SF as top-5 teams, and Cin almost 2 points above average.