Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Week 16 Picks

2-2 last week. The usual protocol this week re injuries, weather, lines, etc. And as always, "Big Plays" are games with a 4+ point edge, and "Other Plays" are games with 2-4 point edges.

Getting to be a tough time of year for a system that doesn't account for injuries -- be sure to see the notes below.

Big Plays (20-10 YTD)

Hou (-5.5) at Ind [MP= -11.1]
Oak (+1.0) at KC [MP= -3.9]
Jac (+7.5) at Ten [MP= +3.0]
Chi (+13.5) at GB [MP= +9.3]

Other Plays (36-30-2 YTD)

Pit (-16) vs. STL [MP= -19.0]
Buf (+3.0) vs Den [MP= +0.3]

A number of these picks deserve caution. We continue to like the Texans & Bears better than the market, at least partly because our system doesn't know they're playing with a different QBs than they started the season with. Their offensive stats have taken a dive since their injuries. Even though we weigh recent games more heavily, we use the whole season, which means our numbers will lag these kinds of discrete changes. To some extent this may also be true of the Steelers with a gimpy Roethlisberger. And of course we do not account for coaching changes -- will be interesting to see if KC's performance last week is truly a regime change.

We calculated the Jets-Giants as a neutral site game, figuring the true homefield advantage to the Jets was likely closer to 0 than our usual 2.44. On a neutral field we'd favor the Jets by 3.8, which is close to the market (3.0).

We liked Miami at +10.5 at New England (we have them at +7.6), but the line has already moved to 9.5, taking our edge below 2 points.

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