Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5 Storylines

A trip with Hughes around this week's slate...
Giants D Line
The story Sunday night for the Giants against the Bears was either their ability to sack Jay Cutler or their inability to do anything with the ball on offense for most of the game. The defensive prowess displayed last week now has them sitting 14th in passing defense in the M-P rankings and an impressive fifth in the more heavily weighted category of defensive play success.
       
Other than the sack fest on Sunday night, most news about the Giants defense this season concerns injuries on the D-line. Defensive End Osi Umenyiora appears to have not one, but two bad knees, and no one seems to be sure when DE Matthias Kiwanuka’s neck will allow him to play. Could be this week, could be next year.

The good news for the Giants offense is that they moved up to seventh in rushing offense. The bad news is that rushing offense is our least important statistic overall and that number one back Ahmad Bradshaw may be injured in an all too familiar place. The Giants pass offense is overwhelmingly mediocre (ranked 13th) and their offensive scoring rank – our second most important metric - is a dismal 30th.

Jets

Concerns about the Jets after week one centered on an anemic offense. What a difference a month makes. 31 year-old Ladanian Tomlinson leads a Jets’ running game ranked second and the return of Santonio Holmes from suspension this week should help buoy the Jets 19th ranked passing game by giving QB Sanchez more options. The Jets offense impresses where it counts, too, sitting seventh and eighth in scoring offense and offensive play success, respectively.

It should come as no surprise that where the Jets really earn their number one ranking this week is on the defensive side of the ball (#2 defensive play success, #4 against the rush, #4 scoring defense and #12 against the pass). The Jets expect Darelle Revis to be back this week to face his familiar nemesis Randy Moss when the Jets and Vikings meet on Monday night. The return of LB Orlando Pace should bolster the already strong defense against the rush, which will be tested nonetheless by the Vikings eighth ranked rushing offense led by Adrian Peterson.

Randy Moss

So Randy returns to Minny. This won’t help the Patriots highly ranked (#5) passing offense climb any higher unless he was as big of a distraction as he was purported to be, but Moss wasn’t factoring as much into the Pats offense this season anyway. He has a paltry 9 receptions through week four. The real question is how much does the loss of a legitimate downfield threat to stretch the field limit the ability of the Pats to throw underneath to Welker and the tight end corps?

From a football point of view, there is only upside to this move by the Vikings. They rank last in passing offense, last in scoring offense, and 25th in offensive play success.  The addition of Moss should open up things even more for Minnesota’s strong run game, and his nose for the end-zone should help improve that sad offensive scoring stat.

Cards Rookie

The Cardinals have opted to go with undrafted rookie quarterback Max Hall as the starter against the New Orleans Saints this weekend. The Cards are in clear need of a change at the position as the team ranks 30th in pass offense, 29th in offensive pass success and 19th in scoring offense under former starter Derek Anderson. Before Arizona fans get all giddy about the prospects of the former BYU standout, they should remember that for every Aikman, Elway, and Marino that started during his rookie season there has been a Carr, Couch and Leaf.
       
However, the aforementioned quarterback greats and flops were all first-round, and, with the exception of Ryan Leaf, first-overall picks. A better sample population could be Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Warren Moon. In fact, there are a handful of undrafted success stories in the NFL. What we do know is that the Cards can’t get much worse in the domain that Hall will control. Good luck, kid.

Seattle’s New Back
       
Overshadowed by the Moss trade today is the move of Bills RB Marshawn Lynch to Seattle for a draft pick. The Seahawks have a bye this week so Lynch will have time to get comfortable with coach Pete Carroll’s system, and just in time for the Seahawks 25th ranked rushing game. The physical back should help improve Seattle’s 13th ranked scoring offense in an NFC West division that is up for grabs (unless you’re the 49’ers).


- Andrew Hughes 

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