Here are the Massey-Peabody picks against the spread (ATS) for this weekend, starting with the strongest (note that z-score is a normalized score with a league average of zero):
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (M-P Line: Cleveland -3)
This is one of three games where Massey-Peabody has a different favorite than Vegas. Cincinnati's two starting wide receivers may have had their own reality TV shows, but Massey-Peabody rates Cleveland as the better offense, both rushing and passing. Even with T.O. and Ochocinco, Carson Palmer has struggled mightily, and this is reflected in their passing offense z-score of -0.91 (league average=0). Cincinnati does enjoy a substantial edge on defense, mainly from their excellent pass defense (z-score of -0.91) and play success rate (z-score of -0.66).
Carolina Panthers +13.5 at New Orleans Saints (M-P Line: Carolina +7.5)
There's no sugarcoating it--Carolina has been historically inept so far this season. However, New Orleans has not been the juggernaut many expected. One area Carolina should enjoy an advantage is in the matchup of their rush defense (z-score of -0.60) vs. the New Orleans rush offense (z-score of -0.93). If Carolina can find the end zone even once, their barely-below-average defense should keep them close enough for the cover.
Chicago Bears +4 at New York Giants (M-P Line: Chicago -1)
While Chicago dropped after last week's big win against the rival Packers (no outcome bias here!), they still have the league's best passing offense and rushing defense. The G-Men are last in the league in scoring defense (z-score of 1.22), a stat which incorporates aspects of penalties, turnovers, and special teams. Don't expect much running in this game--the Bears' rush offense is second-to-last in the NFL; they will look to exploit the matchup of their league-best passing offense vs. the Giants' 21st-ranked passing defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens (M-P Line: Pittsburgh -6)
The Roethlisberger-less Steelers look to go to 4-0 against a Ravens squad that has been a big disappointment so far this season. Pittsburgh holds the #1 spot in this week's M-P Rankings due largely to its defense, ranked 3rd against the run and 4th against the pass (z-scores of -0.80 and -0.87, respectively). Baltimore's offense has been a major disappointment. After adding two Pro Bowl-caliber WRs, their passing offense has struggled (z-score of -0.30). Look for Pittsburgh to try to run the ball against the Ravens, who have been unusually vulnerable against the run (z-score of 0.51).
Detroit Lions +14.5 at Green Bay Packers (M-P Line: Detroit +10)
Green Bay held the #2 spot in the rankings even after their loss last week (and actually improved overall!) but while Green Bay is far superior to Detroit in every facet of the game, we only have 3 weeks of data so far, and the mismatch is not large enough to warrant a line of more than 2 touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins +1 vs. New England Patriots (M-P Line: Miami -2.5)
Despite their poor showing against the Jets last Monday night, the Dolphins still rate out as a solid--if unspectacular--team across the board. Miami rates above average in all four statistics used to formulate the M-P Rankings on offense and defense New England boasts a much better offense, but the Pats defense is weak across the board, rating 26th or worse in both pass and rush defense, and second-to-last in opponent play success %. Look for Miami to bounce back and win the game outright.
*2-3 Point Edges (weaker plays)*
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 vs. Indianapolis Colts (M-P Line: Jacksonville +4)
Colts passing offense has been good, but not great, so far this season (z-score of 0.32). This game could get ugly in a hurry if they have their way against the Jags' league-worst pass defense (z-score of 1.42). The M-P line does not consider specific matchup factors, and this is a game where there is a clear-cut matchup that one team will look to exploit.
Buffalo Bills +5.5 vs. New York Jets (M-P Line: Buffalo +2.5)
The Bills played the Pats tough last weekend, and now host the Jets in what could be a letdown game. The Jets are great running the ball and stopping the run, but just average on both sides of the ball passing. The Bills are a bad team, but are they as bad as Detroit and Carolina, like this line suggests? No.
Oakland Raiders +3.5 vs. Houston Texans (M-P Line: Oakland +1)
Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders offense should have some opportunities against a Texans defense that is league-worst in opponent play success % (z-score of 1.10) and 30th in pass defense (z-score of 0.88).
Seattle Seahawks Pick at St. Louis Rams (M-P Line: Seattle -2.5)
The Seahawks are an above average team. The Redskins are a bad team. Yet the Redskins were a 4-point favorite at St. Louis last week and the Seahawks are a pick. I don't get it. Seattle's excellent rush defense (z-score of -0.84) should neutralize Stephen Jackson, and put the game in the hands of rookie Sam Bradford.
Denver Broncos +6.5 at Tennessee Titans (M-P Line: Denver +4.5)
Matchup to watch: Broncos' 3rd-ranked passing offense (z-score of 0.71) vs. Titans' 3rd-ranked passing defense (z-score of -0.89).
--Rufus
Wanted to mention that early in the season our spread in team quality makes it impossible to have a Massey-Peabody line of more than 10 or 11 points. So while we have Carolina and Detroit as good value bets, I would not expect them to do as well as games where we have a different team favored than the Vegas line, or games where we like a favorite.
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