Two weeks ago we took a look at average rank variance for both computer based and subjective ranking systems and found that M-P had the highest variance. Checking in after week 7, we find that our average rank variance has decreased by more than five, while ESPN’s has gone up by almost two. Covers has improved the most by nearly eight. So what, if anything, does this mean?
Perhaps it’s too early to look back into this issue, but it appears as though ESPN has become more sensitive to week to week performance over the last two Sundays while the teams that perform well based on the metrics that matter for the statistical models have started to solidify themselves in each systems ranking universe. That is, teams are falling into line, becoming “who we think they are” to paraphrase a former Arizona Cardinals coach.
Of course, there are always surprisingly big moves in M-P each week, and that brings us to our look back.
A look back: OAK v. DEN
The Raiders moved up 9 spots this week to claim the dubious achievement of being our biggest positive mover this week. Their opponent, the suddenly hapless Denver Broncos, tumbled 7 spots (biggest loser). That’s what happens when a division rival drops 59 on you at home, I suppose.
What can the M-P model say about the way a game was won? For one, the Raiders like having Darren McFadden around. He scored enough points on his own to have beaten the Broncos by four points. The Raiders jumped from 14th to sixth in M-P’s rushing offense rankings. But what moved the Raiders ranking was the improvement in their scoring offense and play success on defense, our second and third most important categories. The silver and black moved up 9 spots in both. Perhaps not surprising given the 59 points they put up and only 14 they allowed.
The Broncos, on the other hand, got dominated in every category one might imagine: rushing defense, passing defense, and offensive and defensive play success.
Bring up the rear
I noticed while compiling results of our stats-based model competitor Covers.com that the bottom three teams were far behind the rest of the field in terms of points. The 30th ranked San Francisco 49ers are 3.8 points worse in this week’s Covers.com poll than the 29th ranked team. This is the largest point differential between teams in the ranking. Additionally, the difference between the 49ers and the 31st ranked Covers.com team, the Bills, is only 0.3 (one of the smallest differences) and between the Bills and Panthers 0.9. In the Covers.com poll, the really bad teams are really in a class by themselves.
The disparity between the bottom 3 and the top 29 in Covers.com got me wondering if the same trend exists in the M-P rankings. Indeed, the largest difference between team points is between the 30th ranked Bills and the 31s ranked TB Buccaneers (1.90). The difference between the Bucs and the last ranked team (you guessed it, Panthers) is a below average 0.33. So yes, M-P “dislikes” the bad teams in its rankings, too. But what’s really interesting to me is that this week Tampa Bay Bucs coach Raheem Morris called his 31st M-P ranked Bucs, “the best team in the NFC.”
A look ahead: NYJ v. GB
This is a big matchup for a lot of reasons. Some consider the Packers to still be the class of the NFC and the Jets are coming off a bye and look to keep rolling. It's also a pretty interesting matchup on paper.
Almost halfway there
At the close of play Tuesday morning, a few teams will have played half of their games. As such, it's time our readers check out our projections broken down by conference. New York fans will be pleased.
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