Arizona Cardinals +7 vs. New Orleans Saints (M-P Line: Cardinals +1.8)
New Orleans is still getting respect from the betting public despite the fact that they are playing like the 'Aints. The primary culprit? The Saints' porous defense, ranked 30th in M-P pass defense and 28th in rush defense. Arizona's defense has been almost as bad, but their M-P ranking has been buoyed by a surprisingly potent rush attack, ranked 3rd in the league. Rookie Max Hall makes his debut for the Cards, replacing the ineffective Derek Anderson. Considering the Cards' passing offense ranks 31st in the league, we don't see much downside to this change.
New York Jets -4 vs. Minnesota Viking (M-P Line: Jets -10.3)
The new leaders atop the M-P rankings play host to the new-look Vikings. Minnesota's acquisition of Randy Moss is not reflected in our rankings, however considering the discrepancy between the M-P line and the consensus Vegas line, we remain bullish on the Jets. Minnesota, known for its staunch rush defense the last few seasons, has had problems against the run this season (rush defense z-score of 0.11), while the Jets have the 2nd-rated rushing attack (z-score of 0.90). Minnesota's solid rushing offense, led by Adrian Peterson, should be held in check by the Jets' 3rd-ranked rush defense, so the Vikings may be forced to win with their passing game, which ranks dead last in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs +7 at Indianapolis Colts (M-P Line: Chiefs +2.7)
This line opened at Colts -8.5 but was quickly bet down to a flat 7. Still, the 3-0 Chiefs are a good play coming off a bye against a Colts team that hasn't been off to its typical torrid start.
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons (M-P Line: Browns -2.9)
The Browns are a mediocre team in just about every aspect of the game. Why does M-P think they should be favorites? We are bearish on the Falcons, a team that has gotten a strong backing thus far by professionals. Atlanta ranks below average in rushing offense, rushing defense, passing offense, and passing defense. In a matchup of two mediocre teams, home field gives Cleveland the advantage.
Smaller/marginal plays (2-3 point edge):
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 at San Francisco 49ers (M-P Line: PHI +1.5)
St. Louis Rams +3 at Detroit Lions (M-P Line: STL +0.6)
In the remaining 8 games, the M-P line falls within 2 points of the point spread, so we do not believe betting these games provides a bettor with an advantage on either side.
Our remaining lines:
BAL -5.2 vs. DEN
JAC -0.9 @ BUF
CIN -7.1 vs. TB
CHI -2.8 @ CAR
GB -2.0 @ WAS
HOU -4.1 vs. NYG
SD -5.8 vs. OAK
DAL -6.0 vs. TEN
--Rufus
No comments:
Post a Comment