3-1-1 last week, 1-0 on big picks. For detail on yearly performance, see this summary graph and/or this spreadsheet. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays [18-8 YTD]:
Det (+6.5) vs. GB (MP= +1.8)
Other Plays [26-20-2 YTD]:
Mia (+7) at Dal (MP= +3.6)
SF (+3) at Bal (MP= -0.3)
Buf (+9) at NYJ (MP= +5.9)
Den (+6) at SD (MP= +3.5)
We scratched two games this week -- Jacksonville/Houston & Oakland/Chicago - because of injuries to Schaub and Cutler. Our policy is to scratch the first game after a team loses its starting QB. That's it. We need something simple and objective to add to our system, which does not account for injuries. We consider that the minimum necessary adjustment. The system is handicapped beyond that but we just live with it, expecting our models to "catch up"quickly as soon as post-injury data start coming in.
A very happy Thanksgiving to all.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Week 11 Picks
5-5 last week, 2-1 on Big Picks. You can view a spreadsheet with all of our picks and results this season here. The big limitation of the Massey-Peabody rankings is that they do not account for injuries. So with all the QB carnage in Week 10, there are some teams that our rankings will have inflated. How well Tyler Palko will perform filling in for Matt Cassel is anybody's guess. We'll do our best to determine which QB changes skew our ratings, and omit those from picks.
On to the games. Lines from Covers.com as of 3:00pm PST. Injuries and matchup factors not accounted for in M-P lines.
Big Plays [17-8 YTD]:
Den +6.5 vs NYJ (M-P= +2.3)
Other Plays [24-19-1 YTD]:
Cin +7 at Bal (M-P= +3.3)
GB -14 vs TB (M-P= -17.1)
Was +7.5 vs Dal (M-P= +4.7)
Chi -3.5 vs SD (M-P= -6.1)
*We're omitting Phi +4.5 at NYG (M-P= +0.4) since Michael Vick's status is uncertain. Might add this pick later in the week depending on how the Vick injury sorts itself out.
On to the games. Lines from Covers.com as of 3:00pm PST. Injuries and matchup factors not accounted for in M-P lines.
Big Plays [17-8 YTD]:
Den +6.5 vs NYJ (M-P= +2.3)
Other Plays [24-19-1 YTD]:
Cin +7 at Bal (M-P= +3.3)
GB -14 vs TB (M-P= -17.1)
Was +7.5 vs Dal (M-P= +4.7)
Chi -3.5 vs SD (M-P= -6.1)
*We're omitting Phi +4.5 at NYG (M-P= +0.4) since Michael Vick's status is uncertain. Might add this pick later in the week depending on how the Vick injury sorts itself out.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Week 10 Picks
Went 5-3 last week (2-1 on top picks). Cincy had a nice second half rally to cover and win. Got a bit of a lucky break with the Arizona punt return TD in OT to win that one, but we'll take it. We have now had winning weeks in 6 of the 7 weeks we've been making these picks this season. And the one losing week was only 3-4-1. It's been surprisingly consistent from week to week.
On to this week's picks; lines from Covers.com as of Thursday at 2pm PST. Big picks have edges of >4 points; Other picks have edges of 2-4 points. As always, these picks do not take into account injuries or matchup factors.
Big Picks [16-7 YTD]:
Buf +5.5 at Dal (MP= +0.4)
SF -3.5 vs NYG (MP= -8.4)
Hou -3 at TB (MP= -7.8)
Other Picks [21-15-1 YTD]:
Cle -3 vs STL (MP= -6.7)
Mia -4 vs Was (MP= -7.6)
*Oak +7 at SD (MP= +3.8)
Cin +3 at PIT (MP=+0.0)
Car -3.5 vs Ten (MP= -6.2)
Det +3 at Chi (MP= +0.6)
Den +3 at KC (MP= +0.8)
*Carson Palmer starting his 2nd game in place of Jason Campbell; Oakland has played 2 games without Campbell, but we're going to include this pick, as Palmer is not a significant downgrade.
On to this week's picks; lines from Covers.com as of Thursday at 2pm PST. Big picks have edges of >4 points; Other picks have edges of 2-4 points. As always, these picks do not take into account injuries or matchup factors.
Big Picks [16-7 YTD]:
Buf +5.5 at Dal (MP= +0.4)
SF -3.5 vs NYG (MP= -8.4)
Hou -3 at TB (MP= -7.8)
Other Picks [21-15-1 YTD]:
Cle -3 vs STL (MP= -6.7)
Mia -4 vs Was (MP= -7.6)
*Oak +7 at SD (MP= +3.8)
Cin +3 at PIT (MP=+0.0)
Car -3.5 vs Ten (MP= -6.2)
Det +3 at Chi (MP= +0.6)
Den +3 at KC (MP= +0.8)
*Carson Palmer starting his 2nd game in place of Jason Campbell; Oakland has played 2 games without Campbell, but we're going to include this pick, as Palmer is not a significant downgrade.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Week 9 Picks
Just a heads up...MP rankings not in the WSJ until Saturday this week. Another solid week last week at 6-3 overall (1-1 on Big Picks, 5-2 on Other Picks). On to this week's picks where we have a few we really like. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; Big Picks are >4 pt edges; Other Picks are 2-4 pt edges.
Big Picks [13-6 YTD]:
Ari -3 vs Stl (MP= -10.6)
Cin +3 at Ten (MP= -3.5)
Buf -2 vs NYJ (MP= -7.0)
Other Picks [18-13-1 YTD]:
SF -3.5 at Was (MP= -7.0)
Sea +11.5 vs Dal (MP= +8.4)
SD +5.5 vs GB (MP= +2.8)
Ind +7 vs Atl (MP= +4.4)
Chi +7.5 vs Phi (MP= +5.0)
Once again, we're on Buffalo and Indy. Seems like it's a weekly thing. One is proving us right; the other...not so much. It does seem (to me at least) that the market has been slow to react to the early successes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco. MP rankings have bought into all three teams, with Buf and SF as top-5 teams, and Cin almost 2 points above average.
Big Picks [13-6 YTD]:
Ari -3 vs Stl (MP= -10.6)
Cin +3 at Ten (MP= -3.5)
Buf -2 vs NYJ (MP= -7.0)
Other Picks [18-13-1 YTD]:
SF -3.5 at Was (MP= -7.0)
Sea +11.5 vs Dal (MP= +8.4)
SD +5.5 vs GB (MP= +2.8)
Ind +7 vs Atl (MP= +4.4)
Chi +7.5 vs Phi (MP= +5.0)
Once again, we're on Buffalo and Indy. Seems like it's a weekly thing. One is proving us right; the other...not so much. It does seem (to me at least) that the market has been slow to react to the early successes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco. MP rankings have bought into all three teams, with Buf and SF as top-5 teams, and Cin almost 2 points above average.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Week 8 Picks
3-2 last week. 1-0 on our Big Pick. Remember, we did not count Oakland as a pick. The distinction we made between MIN and OAK's QB changes was that MIN made the decision to change their QB, the implication being that it gave them a better chance to win (and develop their rookie QB), whereas OAK's QB change was due to injury and we'd expect a substantial downgrade there. Naturally, our rankings would overvalue Oakland.
On to this week--lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; "Big Picks" are >4-point edges, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries, weather, etc.
Big Picks [12-5 YTD]:
Ind +9 at Ten (MP= +3.9)
Ari +12.5 at Bal (MP= +8.2)
SF -9 vs Cle (MP= -11.1)
Dal +3 at Phi (MP= -0.5)
*Buffalo is playing their yearly "home" game in Toronto. Home field advantage probably not as strong, but we'll leave it as a pick.
On to this week--lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago; "Big Picks" are >4-point edges, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries, weather, etc.
Big Picks [12-5 YTD]:
Ind +9 at Ten (MP= +3.9)
Ari +12.5 at Bal (MP= +8.2)
Other Picks [13-11-1 YTD]:
Hou -9 vs Jac (MP= -12.1)
Mia +9.5 at NYG (MP= +5.8)
*Buf -5.5 vs Was (MP= -8.1)
Den +3 vs Det (MP= -0.5)
Pit +3 vs NE (MP= -0.4)SF -9 vs Cle (MP= -11.1)
Dal +3 at Phi (MP= -0.5)
*Buffalo is playing their yearly "home" game in Toronto. Home field advantage probably not as strong, but we'll leave it as a pick.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Week 7 Picks
3-4-1 last week. This week injuries and line moves are killing us but we still have a few edges. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of about 15 minutes ago.
Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:
*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)
* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).
Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:
Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.
Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:
*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)
* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).
Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:
Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Week 6 Picks
4-2 last week, 19-10 YTD. Winning record all 3 weeks. We'll get a full season analysis up soon.
Big slate of picks again this week. The usual scoop: lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago, "Big Picks" are >4-point edge, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries/weather/etc.
Big Picks [11-3 YTD]:
Min (+3) at Chi (MP= -2.6)
Was (+1.5) vs Phi (MP= -3.9)
Other Picks [8-7 YTD]:
SF (+4) at Det (MP= +0.2)
GB (-14.5) vs STL (MP= -18.0)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal (MP= +4.5)
Buf (+3) at NYG (MP= +0.3)
Car (+3.5) at Atl (MP= +1.4)
Cin (-7) vs Ind (MP= -9.0)
Amazed we like the Packers even though they're giving 14.5 points. St. Louis, ala Carolina last year, is getting some serious separation from the pack. Buffalo still looks underrated and Philly overrated.
Big slate of picks again this week. The usual scoop: lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago, "Big Picks" are >4-point edge, "Other Picks" have 2-4 point edges, no consideration of injuries/weather/etc.
Big Picks [11-3 YTD]:
Min (+3) at Chi (MP= -2.6)
Was (+1.5) vs Phi (MP= -3.9)
Other Picks [8-7 YTD]:
SF (+4) at Det (MP= +0.2)
GB (-14.5) vs STL (MP= -18.0)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal (MP= +4.5)
Buf (+3) at NYG (MP= +0.3)
Car (+3.5) at Atl (MP= +1.4)
Cin (-7) vs Ind (MP= -9.0)
Amazed we like the Packers even though they're giving 14.5 points. St. Louis, ala Carolina last year, is getting some serious separation from the pack. Buffalo still looks underrated and Philly overrated.
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