Thursday, January 6, 2011

NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

The playoffs are finally here. And we at Massey-Peabody are very happy about this. See, the Massey-Peabody system has been at its best during the postseason. In games where the Massey-Peabody line differed from the point spread by at least 2 points, M-P has posted a sterling 36-19 record the past decade (a return of 25.5% per bet against the point spread). We're not cherry-picking that 2 point difference either--the side M-P favors is 61-37 in all postseason games.

Seattle Seahawks +10.5
vs. New Orleans Saints (M-P Line: SEA +4.0)

The defending Super Bowl champions against the worst playoff team in NFL history. A complete mismatch, right? The market seems to think so, but Massey-Peabody begs to differ. The Seahawks is a bad team--they are substantially worse than their 7-9 record would indicate. They have a negative ranking in all 8 statistical categories that determine M-P and their closest loss was by a whopping 15 points! But Seattle is playing at home, against a banged-up Saints team that is very good, but not elite.

Green Bay Packers +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (M-P Line: GB -0.6)

Massey-Peabody has been very high on the Pack all season long. The matchup to watch in this game is the Packers rush defense (23rd in NFL according to M-P) against the Eagles rush offense (1st in the NFL). Many NFL "experts" have urged Michael Vick to slide more often and temper his running impulses. But the Eagles are going to need explosive plays from the running game to beat the Packers, and those will be hard to come by without Vick's involvement. With their WRs all healthy, Packers have the weapons in the passing game (3rd in the NFL) to exploit an Eagles secondary that has been average at best.

Other Lines:

BAL -2.8 @ KC
IND -1.9 vs. NYJ

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