Thursday, January 20, 2011

Conference Championship Picks

Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers (M-P Line: CHI +1.5; M-P Total: 41.7)

For the second week in a row, the Packers had the best performance of any team, as determined by the single-game Massey-Peabody rankings. The Bears also cruised to victory last week against a subpar Seahawks team that brought its C- game. Chicago should get a huge lift playing at home, as the grass playing surface--which has not been in great shape--and weather should slow down the Packers speedy wide receivers. As long as bad Cutler doesn't show up, this game is close to a coin flip.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. New York Jets (M-P Line: PIT -5.7; M-P Total: 37.0)

The Jets visit Heinz Field for the second time this season, where they won a nail-biter late in the regular season. After knocking off the two best quarterbacks in the NFL on the road in back-to-back weeks, how aren't they favored? First, the Jets played above their baseline level, and regression towards their season baseline performance is likely. Second, the Jets beat two teams (IND and NE) that have mediocre rush defenses. They were able to rely heavily on the run, and won largely despite Mark Sanchez (although to be fair to Sanchez, he didn't do anything to cause the Jets to lose). Against a run-stopping Steelers defense, Sanchez will need to turn in one of his best performances of the year for the Jets to have a chance.

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