1-0 last week. Only three games left in the season and happily we do have a pick this weekend. In fact it's very nearly in the "Big Play" category (more than a 4-point edge). Usual deal - no weather, injuries or matchups considered here. Lines are from Covers.com 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (40-35-2 YTD)
SF -2.5 vs. NYG [MP= -6.4]
In the AFC we have New England by -5.6 vs. Baltimore, while the market has them at -7. That line opened at 7.5 so has moved toward us a bit.
In short, we think the Niners are a little more likely to win than the Patriots, while the market thinks they are considerably less likely to.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Divisional Playoff Picks
A painful 0-2 last week. With Denver, in particular, a great reminder of how difficult this prediction business is. But here we go again, with our typical set of considerations - no regard for weather, injuries or matchups. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-35-2 YTD)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal [MP= +4.8]
In the other games we have New Orleans by 1.6 (line=3.5), Green Bay by 8.2 (v. 7.5) and New England by 11.8 (v. 13.5).
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-35-2 YTD)
Hou (+7.5) at Bal [MP= +4.8]
In the other games we have New Orleans by 1.6 (line=3.5), Green Bay by 8.2 (v. 7.5) and New England by 11.8 (v. 13.5).
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Wildcard Picks
2-3 last week. Ended with a whimper, alas. We'll see if we can pick it back up for the playoffs. Hate to slide more chips in on so few plays, but, on the other hand, the lines are a little softer this time of year. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago. As usual, no consideration of weather, matchups and injuries (though see note on Texans/Schaub below).
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-33-2 YTD)
Det (+10.5) at NO [MP= +7.99]
Atl (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.99]
Other Games
We have Pittsburgh an 8-point favorite at Denver. Line is 9. If you allow a (downward) Tebow effect in Denver's season, it's not hard to understand the extra point.
We have Houston a 3.3-point favorite hosting Cincinnati. Line is 3. We essentially downgraded Houston this week by considering only the 6 post-Schaub games in our ratings for them. This is the only injury adjustment in the numbers. A crude one, but it looks like we landed right on top of the market.
Big Plays (22-12 YTD)
No big plays this week.
Other Plays (39-33-2 YTD)
Det (+10.5) at NO [MP= +7.99]
Atl (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.99]
Other Games
We have Pittsburgh an 8-point favorite at Denver. Line is 9. If you allow a (downward) Tebow effect in Denver's season, it's not hard to understand the extra point.
We have Houston a 3.3-point favorite hosting Cincinnati. Line is 3. We essentially downgraded Houston this week by considering only the 6 post-Schaub games in our ratings for them. This is the only injury adjustment in the numbers. A crude one, but it looks like we landed right on top of the market.
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