Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Week 17 Picks

3-2 last week (2-2 on Big Plays). Going into the last weekend our Big Plays are 64.7% YTD and Other Plays are 55.2%. 5 games on tap this week, with the usual considerations -- injuries, weather and matchups are not factored in. Lines are from Covers.com as of 15 minutes ago.

Big Plays (22-12 YTD)

None this week.

Other Plays (37-30-2 YTD)

Dal (+3) at NYG [MP= -0.4]
SF (-10.5) at STL [MP= -13.5]
Den (-3) vs KC [MP= -5.9]
Chi (pick) at Min [MP= -2.9]
SD (+3) at Oak [MP= +0.4]

We're scratching two games because of final weekend oddities. The Packers-Lions and Texas-Titans both match teams with nothing to gain against teams with a lot on the line. The market lines are completely disconnected from any kind of power rankings.

The Steelers-Browns game is currently off the board because of Roethlisberger's unknown status. We show that as a 9-point game if Roethlisberger is fully active.

One large, interesting line move so far this week: Saints opened -7 against Carolina, but have since moved to -9. We have them at -10.3.

No comments:

Post a Comment