Thursday, December 1, 2011

Week 13 Picks

3-2 last week (again!). Missed on the only big bet. See the "Performance" tabs for much more detail.

Onto the picks. Usual setup - we do not consider matchups, weather or injuries (one QB exception noted below). Lines are from as of 15 minutes ago.

Big Plays [18-9 YTD]:

Chi (-7.0) vs. KC (MP= -12.1)
SF (-13) vs. STL (MP= -17.7)

Other Plays [29-21-2 YTD]:

Jac (+3.0) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Det (+9.0) at NO (MP= +6.1)
Car (+3.0) at TB (MP= +0.4)
Buf (-1.5) vs. Ten (MP= -4.0)

We're scratching Houston-Atlanta since Houston lost their starting QB last week (for the second week in a row). We're also not thrilled with the Chicago pick since we have only one week of data since Cutler's been out. But as we discussed in last week's blog, our policy is to scratch only the first week following a QB injury.

Earlier this week we thought we'd have a pick on Arizona (vs. Dallas). We have that line at 3.2. It opened at 6 but has since moved to 4.5. As we've said before, it's frustrating to lose those picks but a good sign overall when lines move toward you.  OTOH, the Chicago line moved big against us this week, taking it from "Other Plays" into "Big Plays". If we're lucky the market's over-valuing the Cutler injury.

A bit more on line moves. Just looked at the other 8 games we're NOT picking this week (because the edge is too small). In 5 of those games the line has moved since it opened, and in all 5 cases it moved toward us. Definitely what you want to see. Off-season we'll do a more systematic analysis.

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