Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Week 14 Picks

One of our only bad weeks of the season last week: 2-4 (1-1 on big plays). Look to rebound this week with a huge slate - picks on 10 games. As usual, these don't consider injuries, weather, matchups, etc. Lines from as of 15 minutes ago. 

Big Plays

*Hou (+3) at Cin [MP= -4.3]
Sea (-5) vs STL [MP= -10.3]

Other Plays
Jac (+1) vs TB [MP= -2.8]
Det (-7) vs Min [MP= -10.7]
Chi (+3.5) at Den [MP= -0.1]
NO (-3.5) at Ten [MP= -7.1]
NYJ (-9) vs KC [MP= -12.3]
Buf (+7) at SD [MP= 4.3]
SF (-3.5) at Ari [MP= -5.7]
Dal (-3) vs NYG [MP= -5.2]

*Clearly the reason we disagree so much with the market on Hou/Cin is because of the Texans' QB situation.As discussed in previous weeks, we scratch games only the first week after a team loses its QB. So we have Houston on the board as an official pick, but we can't say we like it much. Same for the Chicago pick, due to the Cutler injury.

Fewer lines moves this week, and they're more balanced for/against us. A line move on the Dallas game cost us a pick last week, but is giving us one this week, as the 1/2-point shift toward the Giants was needed to get this pick over the 2-point threshold. Are the Giants one of the only teams out there with as much sentiment in the spread as the Cowboys?

The biggest line move has been on the Baltimore-Indy game. We have it 16.8. The market opened at 15 but has since moved to 16.5. I'm entertained by the move to almost our exact line, but also the absurdity of the (shared!) precision on a game that should be such a blowout. "88% chance of winning is not quite right, let's make it 90%."

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