3-4-1 last week. This week injuries and line moves are killing us but we still have a few edges. As usual, lines are from Covers.com as of about 15 minutes ago.
Big Picks [11-5 YTD]:
*Oak (-5.5) vs KC {MP= -10.3)
Min (+9) vs GB (MP= +4.6)
* Obviously the Oakland edge is not considering the injury to their starting QB. We're reporting the numbers but are not counting it as a pick. We don't feel that we have the same leeway with the Minnesota pick, which seems influenced by the QB switch there (the line has moved strongly away from us).
Other Picks [11-9-1 YTD]:
Hou (+3) at Ten (MP= 0.0)
Ind (+14) at NO (MP= +11.1)
TB (+1) vs Chi (MP= -1.7)
NYJ (+2) vs. SD (MP= -0.3)
Of course we liked the Jets even more at the opening line of 2.5. Other line moves cost us bets on Dal (-13 vs. STL) and Was (+2.5 at Car), both of which we had more than 2-point edges on before 1/2-point moves toward us. We need to do a systematic study of line moves. As painful as they are, you like to see lines move toward you -- means you're doing something right.
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