Week 6 Storylines

A trip with Hughes around this week's slate…
 
The Packers at Number One?
 
The same team that clanked the game winning field goal as time expired off the left upright and proceeded to lose in OT to now-26th ranked Washington (who dropped from 19th after the win, incidentally)? What is going on here? Simply put, the Pack fair well on what best predicts future performance. For example, they rank third in offensive play success, fifth in scoring offense and fifth in passing offense after week five despite the loss. The question going into week six should not be about their ranking, but about their ability to live up to it given their injuries, particularly to Aaron Rogers.
 
Movers and Losers
 
Through five weeks of the NFL season, we've seen some teams move pretty fluidly through the M-P rankings. While it's early, this season's biggest net winner so far has been the San Diego Chargers, who sat 28th after week one and now rank seventh. The Houston Texans, who debuted in the top spot after week one, have tumbled to 21st after their beatdown at the hands of the New York Football Giants.
 
Other ranking systems we track tell a different story. While Covers and SportsNutz have at least moved those teams in the same direction as M-P, ESPN -- which is the only "human" system of the 4, as actually DROPPED San Diego over the course of the season (from 12th to 21st). All 4 systems agree on Houston, but the fall from grace has been steepest at M-P (from 1st to 21st). 
Who has most impressed and disappointed the other systems?  The other computer systems have been most positively surprised by Atlanta (Covers, +17) and KC (SportsNutz, +17), while most disappointed by Seattle, New Orleans (both -17 at Covers) and the Giants (-11 at SportsNutz). The human voters over at ESPN have been most favorably surprised by Chicago (+15) and most disappointed by Minnesota (-14).
 

It's still too early in the season both from a results and data collection point of view to make value statements about whether our system arrives at the accurate ranking for a team "faster" or a particular ranking system "underweights" or "overweights" teams that M-P is impressed or disappointed by, but that's the direction we're heading. 

 

 
ESPN vs. Computers
 
One question we did ask this week was how responsive different ranking systems are week to week, including our own. We're curious whether subjective systems like ESPN's are more or less responsive to changes in performance or results than computer systems or vice versa and how we compare to the other systems generally.

Again, it is early in the season, but we can draw at least one preliminary conclusion. ESPN has the lowest rank variance of all systems we looked at, which suggests that voters are less sensitive to week to week performance and results than the computers. About 1/2 as responsive, on average. Perhaps unsurprisingly, voters are more likely to stick to their team biases, at least in the early going. Among the computer rankings M-P is easily the most responsive (too responsive?), shifting teams twice as far as SportsNutz.
 
Child Abuse
 
Colt McCoy sat and waited a long time on draft day for his name to be called. 84 players were taken ahead of him. Word out of Cleveland is that he won't have to wait much longer before he makes his NFL debut. Coach Eric Mangini is leaning toward starting the UT product against the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Yikes.
 
In addition to suffering injuries at the quarterback position last week, the move may be prompted by the need to address underperformance under center as the team ranks in the bottom half of the league in all offensive categories. McCoy will take over the 19th ranked passing offense that receives little reprieve from its 25th ranked rushing offense. The team ranks 17th and 23rd in offensive play success and scoring offense, respectively. McCoy is an accurate passer and if you're both a Browns fans and an optimist - perhaps an unlikely combo - you might argue that Colt can win your team some M-P points in the important offensive play success category by throwing five - ten yard passes and moving the ball down the field. However, with a rookie QB starting on the road against the Steelers defense, expect the offensive burden to fall on the shoulders of that 25th ranked rushing offense.
 
And speaking of the Steelers' defense, pick your poison. Through week five, the Steel Curtain holds the top spot against the run and in scoring defense, is number three against the pass, and ranks ninth in defensive play success. Seeing as how the Brown's porous offensive line play has yielded two injured quarterbacks (Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace) and a dismal ground attack, Colt should be expecting a long day and an anxious family in the stands in a stadium that will be rocking for Big Ben's return.
 
- Andrew Hughes