Still, how did the Packers improve 3 spots while the Redskins dropped 7 spots after the Redskins beat the Packers? As a lifelong Redskins fan, I watched the game on Sunday and can honestly say that the game should have been over at halftime. The Packers were clearly the superior team, but made a few key errors that kept the game from being a laugher. Green Bay failed to convert on 4th-and-goal from the WAS 1-yard line and missed two field goals in the game.
Let's look at the component statistics used to derive the M-P rankings for this game, adjusting for context. The numbers below are z-scores, representing the number of standard deviations above or below the mean of the expected distribution of the opponent, adjusting for home field. For defensive stats, lower is better; for offensive stats, higher is better.
| Rush O | Rush D | Pass O | Pass D | Score O | Score D | PlaySucc O | PlaySucc D | |
| GB | 2.68 | -1.09 | -0.03 | -0.21 | -0.89 | -1.34 | 0.35 | -1.06 |
| WAS | -1.49 | 3.04 | 0.32 | -0.46 | -1.06 | -1.36 | -1.37 | -0.21 |
Green Bay's rushing attack did much better than they have all season, thanks in part to a 70-yard run by Brandon Jackson. The Redskins passing game looks like it was moderately successful, judging by the positive z-score for Pass O, however, most of the Skins' yardage came on a few big plays. Green Bay enjoyed its biggest edge in the play success category. Play success controls for down and distance, and rates each play as either successful or unsuccessful. What we see is that Green Bay's defense did a great job against Washington's offense, save a few big plays. And Green Bay's offense was moderately successful against Washington, but it had a few missed opportunities. Judging by these stats, it appears that Green Bay clearly played the superior game, and should be rewarded for that, while Washington should be punished, even though they won the game.
--Rufus
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