Paper mismatches dominate week 9

On paper there are some colossal mismatches this weekend. Consider the following:

(5-2) PIT at (2-5) CIN
(1-6) DAL at (5-3) GB
(5-3) NO at (1-6) CAR
(5-2) NYJ at (2-5) DET
(6-1) NE at (2-5) CLE
(4-3) CHI at (0-7) BUF

I became curious about how these look from M-P’s point of view, so I did some research. In some cases, these matchups are as one sided as they appear. The biggest gulf is the Steelers-Bengals game where PIT holds a 22-spot advantage over CIN in the M-P rankings (second versus 24th). Of the games above, the most closely matched from M-P’s point of view is the Bears-Bills game, where the Bears hold an 11-spot lead over winless BUF (19 v. 30). The average separation is a little more than 16 places on the M-P scale following play last weekend (week 8).

Most surprising to me is how the matchups breakdown category-to-category, especially since there are quite a few instances where the underdog is ranked higher than the favorite in a particular category. CIN, for instance, is ranked four spots better than NE in M-P’s highest weighted category, offensive play success (14th for CIN, 18th for the Brady Bunch), and a touch higher in rushing offense. The second biggest difference between M-P ranked teams is 19 in the Saints – Panthers game, yet the Panthers rank higher than New Orleans in three categories including defensive play success (third most heavily weighted category).

And of course the Cowboys bring some irony to their matchup with the Packers, even when it comes to M-P rankings. The only matchup where the “favored team” (in terms of both M-P rank and win percentage) is ranked higher than the underdog in every M-P category is the GB-DAL game. This despite the fact that the old NFC rivalry features teams separated by “only” 14 spots on the latest M-P pole, second least in the sample above.